“The whole world’s in a terrible state o’ chassis” – Captain Boyle from the play Juno and the Paycock.
But what is this certainty?
An individual who buys fire insurance on a house they own is accepting the certainty of loss of a small amount (the insurance premium) to get rid of the combination of a slight risk of a much larger loss (the value of the house) and a large chance of no loss.
That is, he choosing certainty over uncertainty.
An individual who buys a lottery ticket or who places a bet on a horse is subjecting themself to a large risk of losing a small sum (the price of the lottery ticket or the amount of the bet) plus a small chance of winning a large amount (a prize) in preference to avoiding both contingencies.
He is choosing uncertainty in preference to certainty.
Insurance is like an umbrella on a rainy day. You’d rather have it and not need it, rather than not have it when you need it.